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000170_fdc@watsun.cc.columbia.edu_Wed Nov 28 09:34:44 EST 2001.msg
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Article: 12993 of comp.protocols.kermit.misc
Path: newsmaster.cc.columbia.edu!watsun.cc.columbia.edu!fdc
From: fdc@watsun.cc.columbia.edu (Frank da Cruz)
Newsgroups: comp.protocols.kermit.misc
Subject: Re: K95+ shrinkwrapped packages back in stock
Date: 28 Nov 2001 14:33:40 GMT
Organization: Columbia University
Lines: 48
Message-ID: <9u2sk4$qmd$1@newsmaster.cc.columbia.edu>
References: <9u136a$pri$1@newsmaster.cc.columbia.edu> <9u18jq$ld6$1@samba.rahul.net>
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Xref: newsmaster.cc.columbia.edu comp.protocols.kermit.misc:12993
In article <9u18jq$ld6$1@samba.rahul.net>, <dold@25.usenet.us.com> wrote:
: Frank da Cruz <fdc@watsun.cc.columbia.edu> wrote:
:
: : To be perfectly candid, I'm not thrilled with the results of the trial
: : download. As soon as it was announced, our orders dropped to 10% of
:
: Compared to what number of downloads?
: Are you saying that the difference between the current order rate and
: the old order rate is 90%, and that the number of downloads is equal to
: that 90%?
:
Let's say the number of copies of K95 shrinkwraps we sold per week prior
to the download was n, averaged over several years. Then in the two+ months
since the download became available (in round numbers):
. The number of downloads per week is 50 x n.
. The number of sales per week is n / 10.
. The number of sales per download is, therefore, n / 500.
This seems to say something about "e-commerce". We all know how so many
dot-coms with their multibillion dollar IPOs went belly-up because they
weren't actually selling anything. The "street" believed that if you were
popular, this would somehow turn into revenue. It didn't.
Here we have actual hard data on this phenomenon. The common wisdom is that
by making software more easily available, you'll increase its popularity and
therefore the number of orders/licenses. The data so far indicates just the
opposite. But obviously there are other factors to consider beyond the
availability of a trial download:
. The economy.
. The fact that new releases are expected soon.
. The degree to which text-based applications (terminal emulation,
command languages, etc) remain viable.
. The availability of a tangible product (package). This has changed for
the first time since the download started, so we will soon see whether
this is a pertinent factor.
Personally, I have faith that applications like Kermit will have a place
for years to come; if not in the mass market, then among experienced
computer users, system/network administrators, and system integrators who
can make good use of its platform- and transport-independent automation
features.
- Frank